GCT Gold Daily Trading Package XX.XX.XX

 

THIS IS AN EXAMPLE TRADING PACKAGE. NO TRADES ARE CURRENT. THIS IS FOR EXAMPLE PURPOSES ONLY.

Keys to Today's Markets

• SAMPLE --- US home prices - Today's June S&P/CaseShiller home price index is expected to fall further to -16.2% y/y from -15.8% y/y in May. The May level of -15.8% was a record low, although the series only has history back to 2001. Separately, the June U.S. house price index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) is expected to fall -0.4% m/m, adding to the -0.3% m/m decline seen in May. US home prices are likely to continue to fall given slack buyer demand and the huge supply of homes that are on the market. There had originally been hopes in the marketplace that home prices might find a bottom this year, but now the market consensus for a bottom has shifted to next year.
  
  
• SAMPLE --- US consumer confidence - Today's Aug U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to rise +1.1 points to 53.0, adding to the small upward rebound of +0.9 points to 51.9 seen in July. The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index hit a 16-year low of 51.0 in June. US consumer confidence seems to have bottomed out recently as gasoline prices have abated somewhat from record highs and as the federal stimulus program injected some cash into the economy to keep GDP growth afloat. Nevertheless, there is little reason to expect any major improvement in US consumer confidence given the continued banking and housing crises, falling home prices, the progressively weaker labor market, and the fading effects of the federal stimulus program.
  
  
• SAMPLE --- New home sales - Today's July new home sales report is expected to fall -0.9% to 525,000, adding to the -0.6% decline to 530,000 seen in June. Today's expected report of 525,000 would be just 2.3% above the 17-year low of 513,000 posted in March 2008. The supply of new homes on the market was at 10.0 months in June. That was down from the 28-year high of 11.2 months seen in March but was still at an extraordinarily high level that is putting continued severe downward pressure on home prices. Yesterday's July existing home sales report of +3.1% to 5.00 mln units was stronger than the expected report of 4.91 million units. However, the increase in existing home sales activity was not enough to make much of a dent in the huge supply of existing homes on the market, since the supply of existing homes on the market only fell to 10.6 months in July from the peak of 11.0 months in June.
  
  
• SAMPLE --- FOMC minutes - The Fed today will release the minutes from the Aug 5 FOMC meeting. The FOMC at that meeting left its funds rate target unchanged at 2.00%, which was fully in line with market expectations. The markets will be trying to gauge the Fed's latest thinking on the conflicting concerns about inflation and weak economic growth. The recent sharp decline in oil and commodity prices has taken a significant amount of pressure off the Fed on the inflation front, which has led the market to suspect that the Fed will leave its funds rate target at the very low level of 2.00% for the remainder of this year.

Market Ideas

› Working Entries xx.xx.xx

1. NEW * xx.xx.xx - September Mini-Dow Put Spread - Call Broker for Details. Trade based on short-term dow weakness. Expected risk between $400 - $700.
2. xx.xx.xx GTC - Sell December Austrailian Dollar at .8500 STOP CLOSE ONLY. If filled risk trade to .8650. Consider taking profits at .8200. Risk - $1,500 Reward - $3,000.
3. xx.xx.xx GTC- Sell December Silver Futures at 13.000 STOP CLOSE ONLY. If filled risk trade to 14.000. Consider taking profits at 11.000. Risk - $5,000. Reward - $10,000. [Mini-Contract Risk - $1000. Reward - $2,000)
4. xx.xx.xx GTC- Sell November Feeder Cattle Futures at 111.15 STOP CLOSE ONLY. If filled risk trade to 113.00. Consider taking profits at 107.00. Risk - $925. Reward - $3,000.
5. xx.xx.x x- Buy December Coffee Bull Call Spread (Buying 140 Call, Selling 155 Call for 4.35pts. or $1631.25). We will also sell a December Coffee 130 Put for 3.10 ($1162.50) to finance some of the Bull Call Spread. We will risk approximately 275 points ($1031) on the entire position. We will consider taking profits on the entire position when December futures reach 151.00. Use your GCT broker to help you enter and manage this position.
6. xx.xx.xx - Buy 2 December Corn and SELL 3 December Soybean Meal. Risk the Spread to $1500 and consider taking profits if spread reaches $5,5,00. Use your GCT broker to help you enter and manage this position. We entered this position 08.25.08 we will post when there is of little value left to enter the spread.
7. xx.xx.xx - Buy 2 October Soybean Oil 56 Calls at 1.10 ($660 combined). Once filled Sell 1 December Bean Oil at 56.75. IF you sell the futures liquidate one of the call options and risk 2.00 pts ($1200) on the futures contract. Consider taking profits on the position at 47.00.***If futures do not reach 56.75 to go short your risk is simply the premium paid on the call options. Use your GCT broker to help you enter and manage this position.
8. xx.xx.xx - Buy March Sugar Bull Call Spread (Buying 15.00 Call, Selling 17.50 Call for .70 pts. or $784). We will also sell a March Sugar 13.00 Put for .57 ($638.40) to finance some of the Bull Call Spread. We will risk approximately .50 points ($560) on the entire position. We will consider taking profits on the entire position when March futures reach 17.07.Use your GCT broker to help you enter and manage this position.
9. xx.xx.xx - Buy March Sugar at 14.79. Risk the trade to 14.29 STOP. Consider taking profits at 16.57. Risk - $560. Reward - $1,993.60.
10. xx.xx.xx - Buy November Soybeans Bull Call Spread (Buying 1340 Call, Selling 1480 Call for 35'0 cents or $1750). We will also sell a November Soybean 1160 Put for 35'0 cents or ($1750) to finance some of the Bull Call Spread. We will risk approximately 17'0 cents on the position ($850) on the entire position. We will consider taking profits on the entire position when March futures reach 1450'0. Use your GCT broker to help you enter and manage this position.

› Open Positions xx.xx.xx

1. xx.xx.xx - Holding Bullish March Sugar Futures - Call broker for details. Position Update: Currently long from 15.02 with market currently trading 15.54.
2. xx.xx.xx - Long December Cotton 80.00 Call from 1.60. Risk trade .80 to 2.40. Initial profit target at 4.00. Position Update: Currenly valued at 1.43.
3. [***UPDATE for xx.xx.xx] xx.xx.xx - Holding Short October Sugar futures at 13.37. With the bullish technicals now in place and our heavy long-term bullish bias, as noted by other ideas on this sheet, continue to risk the trade 14.40 STOP but we will roll the stop down to 14.00 if the market trades below 3.74, which is the 9 DMA.
4. xx.xx.xx - Bullish March Sugar Debit Spread - Call Broker For Details. Position Update: Currently up .24 on the spread.
5. xx.xx.xx * - Holding Bullish December Cotton Option Strategy - Call Broker for Details. Position Update: Currently down .29 on the long option.
6. <CORRECTION> xx.xx.xx * - Holding Bullish November Coffee Short Option Strategy - Call Broker for Details. Position Update: Currently the short option is .12 against us.
7. xx.xx.xx - Bought 2 December Corn at 621'4 and Sold 3 December Soybean Meal 371.5. Risk the Spread to $1500 and consider taking profits if spread reaches $5,5,00. Position Update: Currently down $440 after entering the position on the open of 08.25.08.

› Closed Postions xx.xx.xx

1. xx.xx.xx - Long-Term Bullish / Short-Term Bearish Corn Spread - Covered December Long Call Options since September Options expired last Friday. This was a short-term BEARISH, long-term bullish spread trade. Corn moved nearly straight up so it DID NOT meet our market expectations, however we still made $100 on the trade to cover costs.
2. xx.xx.xx- Bought December Cotton on the close this afternoon to cover our existing short position from 70.00. Intially we were using a 73.00 stop but after the market broke the triple bottoms and 67.00 and then moved higher we decided (in line with our update on Friday) to hasten our exit as this was purely a technical trade. The result of this trade was a profit of .02 points or $10. Not enough to cover costs so we will chalk it up as a wash. This trade is a good example of how you should not be hesistant to adjust your profit and risk strategy based on the changing technical signals the market gives you.

Aggressive Market Ideas

› Working Entries xx.xx.xx

1. xx.xx.xx - Buy December Gold at 811.3. Risk trade to 804.2 STOP. Consider taking profits at 842.9. Risk - $710. Reward - $3,160.
2. xx.xx.xx - Buy March Corn at 602'0. Risk 15'0 cents from entry using a STOP. Consider taking profits at 681'0. Risk - $750. Reward - $3,950.
3. xx.xx.xx - Buy November Soybeans at 1255'0. Risk trade to 1229'0 STOP. Consider taking profits at 1402'0. Risk - $1,300. Reward - $7,350.
4. xx.xx.xx - Buy December Coffee at 139.30. Risk the trade to 135.10 STOP. Consider taking profits at 151.05. Risk - $925. Reward - $3,000.

› Open Positions xx.xx.xx

1. xx.xx.xx - Bought October Sugar at 13.90. Risk trade to 13.79 STOP. Consider taking profits at 14.35. Risk - $123.20. Reward - $504. Position Update: Oct Sugar closed at 14.07.
2. xx.xx.xx - Bought December Coffee at 141.95. Risk trade to 140.80 STOP. Consider taking profits at 145.35. Risk - $431.25. Reward - $1,275. Position Update: Dec. Coffee closed at 143.30.

› Closed Positions xx.xx.xx

1. xx.xx.xx - Sold our long December Cocoa from 2780 at 2850 for a profit of $700.

ALL RISK AND REWARD VALUES ARE ESTIMATES AND ACTUAL TRADES
YOU PLACE MAY DIFFER BASED ON MARKET CONDITIONS.

***Trade ideas are added as soon as they are available each morning.
Updates on positions entered will happen by 5:00 PM ET after each trading day.